Our second iRead event for Three Cups of Tea featured guest speaker, Dr. James Lee Ray, Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University. Dr. Ray’s research includes American foreign policy, international law and politics, and the causes of war and international conflict. He has published widely on these subjects.
Dr. Ray began his talk with a brief outline of the history of Afghanistan noting that historically they have been a part of many empires. The emergence of a national entity can be traced back to 1747. However, this “Graveyard of Empires” alternated control between the British and Russians up until 1919 when it came under monarchial rule. During the 1960s and 1970s strides were made toward democracy. Late in the 1970s the monarchy was over thrown, and in 1978 Afghanistan was under local communist power. Concerned that the local communist were not strong enough to fight the militant Islamic mujahideens, the Soviet Union invaded in 1979. It was noted that President Jimmy Carter was funneling support through the CIA to the mujahideens in order to lure the Soviet Union into a Vietnam like war to drain their resources and end the Cold War. The initial Soviet invasion easily toppled the communists in power however; the result was a brutal war of occupation. The decade of the 1970s was a horrible decade for the people of Afghanistan. One million Afghans died, and 1/3 of the country’s population fled. When the Soviet’s pulled out, the United States lost interest in Afghanistan. A power vacuum was created and a civil war erupted making conditions even worse than those suffered in the 1970s. This prior relationship creates a problem for US foreign policy as it has created a lack of trust that the US could engage in Afghanistan and pull out again.
In the 1990s the Taliban took over 80% of the country. After the tragedy of 9/11 the US invaded Afghanistan and put an end to the Taliban rule. Hamid Karzai was put in power as the President. In 2004 a Constitution was approved giving the President strong powers with little power to the Parliament. Political parties were established and now there are over 90 political parties, all required to be pro-Islamic, and making it hard to distinguish one from another. There are two primary ethnic groups in Afghanistan: Pashtun (42%) and Tajik (27%) with the majority Pashtun controlling the government. The Presidential election of 2009 is crucial to US involvement as in needs a government to work with. However, the election was plagued with corruption. It is likely Hamid Karzai, a Pushtun, will defeat Adula Adula, a Tajik, due to the majority status of the Pushtuns. Foreign influence in Afghanistan is wide spread and penetrating, further complicating the political situation.
Dr Ray then spoke about “Insurgents, Tribes, and War Lords,” which are forces to reckon with in Afghanistan. They are all part of the Taliban. The most influential is Mullah Omar who has a dedicated following and presides over a shadow government. The standard view has been that the Taliban are a local group with local interests, compared to Al Qaida who have more global interests. Both are anti-American and some are beginning to think that these groups are now almost indistinguishable as the Taliban has intensified its radicalism. However, the US National Security Advisor, James Jones, still thinks the two can be separated to defeat Al Qaida. There are also powerful war lords and tribal chiefs who perhaps can be paid off to aid US interests against Al Qaida, a strategy used in Iraq. Critics of this strategy think this is a mistake as it will strengthen some factions and make it impossible to integrate the country into a modern entity.
Dr Ray concluded that the US military has a daunting challenge. General McCrystal, US Commander in Afghanistan, has proposed a counter insurgency strategy to create a stable country by sending more and more troops. President Obama has already doubled the number of troops in Afghanistan and it is uncertain that he will send 40,000 more as McCrystal has proposed. Another strategy would be counter terrorism which is a less ambitious plan. This plan would buy off elements of the Taliban, war loads, and tribal chiefs to establish a balance of power. The objective would be to concentrate on killing Al Qaida and the terrorists, rather than creating an integrated and stable nation. Given the nature of bureaucratic battles on foreign policy, it is likely a compromise alternative will be found and a middle strategy adopted.
Dr. Ray left us with two questions to ponder:
If a stable Afghanistan is achieved, how much safer would we be? There are a lot of other places terrorists can go to carry out their anti-American terrorist acts.
If the US is defeated in Afghanistan wouldn’t this be a devastating blow to the US and a boost to the Taliban and Al Qaida?
Interesting questions and discussions followed.
Join us on November 24 when Jan and John Bradley will speak about the Lamia-Afghan Foundation which provides humanitarian aid to the children of Afghanistan.
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